April 5, 2020 at 2:20 pm #1176708
How Contagion Works: Science , Awareness and Communithy in Times of Global Crisis by Paolo Giordano trans Alex Valente
Paolo Giordano is a 38-year-old Italian writer who holds a PhD in theoretical physics.
On February 26, he published an influential article, The Maths Behind the Contagion, in Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. It advanced public understanding of why people needed to change their behaviour. And, although normally a slow writer …..[the book was] written in Rome between February 29 and March 4, is the result — a short book, How Contagion Works….. In maths he trusts.…
The speed of contagion depends on a number too, “the hidden heart of each epidemic”, noted with the symbol R0, pronounced “r-nought” — the number of susceptibles each infected causes to contract the virus.
For Covid-19, the figure seems to be about 2.5. Any figure higher than 1 results in an epidemic. Only if it is less than 1 can the spread be halted. “Lowering R0 is the mathematical reason behind our self-sacrifice,” Giordano says: the self-isolation, the lockdown, all the loss and loneliness of that. “In times of contagion, what we do or don’t do is no longer just about us,” he says.
we are ourselves to blame for the contagion because of our aggressive behaviour towards the environment (climate change, deforestation, urbanisation, extinction of species, intensive farming),
“The contagion is an invitation to think. And quarantine is the opportunity to do so,” he urges
“What will happen after is a thought too complex for me;
I’m sure Bill Gates has thought it through.
This is dangerous stuff, rushed out for our masters.April 7, 2020 at 1:37 pm #1179711
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Busy modelling, in the climate science fashion.
Not peer reviewed, but rushed out and released to the press
The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study
Status: in-progress | First online: 01-04-2020 | Last update: 01-04-2020
Authors: Nicholas Davies, Adam J Kucharski1, Rosalind Eggo1, CMMID nCov working group & W John Edmunds.
We simulated different durations of interventions and triggers for introduction, as well as combinations of interventions
To keep ICU bed demand below capacity in the model, more extreme restrictions were necessary. In a scenario where “lockdown”-type interventions were put in place to reduce transmission, these interventions would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year in order to prevent healthcare demand exceeding availability.
Interpretation: The characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 mean that extreme measures are likely required to bring the epidemic under control and to prevent very large numbers of deaths and an excess of demand on hospital beds, especially those in ICUs.
There you go, answer the wreckers want. Simulate on….
The LSHTM was recently awarded £1 million by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine 2020 Research and Learning Opportunities Global Health $1,198,185
“WE WORK TO CHANGE PUBLIC POLICIES, ATTITUDES, AND BEHAVIORS TO IMPROVE LIVES.”
April 7, 2020 at 5:22 pm #1179870willardParticipant
- This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by xileffilex.
I just watched this man’s presentation and it quite striking given our situation today. I think he is important as he is coutering the claims of the corona virus proponents. After watching his presentation, I can not look at the subject of viruses in the same way again.
If am new to this so I can’t vouch for his bona fides; nevertheless, I would interested in your thoughts.
- This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by willard.
"You made me hate myself...Well, I like myself now."
from the movie Willard 1971
The quote reflects my opinion of the media.April 9, 2020 at 4:33 pm #1182903
Key Coronahoax players contd.
Dr David Nabarro
key roles in previous “outbreaks” and “epidemics” e.g. Ebola
Imperial [College London]’s Chair of Global Health, has been appointed as a special envoy for the response to the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak.
and lost out to Tedros in a three-cornered fight to be head of the WHO.
He seems to be the go-to person for the various world governments [sic] in deciding when to lock down or open up.
Dr Nabarro left the United Nations in June 2017 to lead 4SD **, a Swiss social enterprise to
mentor professionals working for sustainable development to help people change the ways they think, talk, act and lead on Sustainable Development.
Nabarro jointly won the 2018 World Food Prize and was congratulated by no other than Bill Gates thus:
Drs [Lawrfence] Haddad and Nabarro have dedicated their careers to reducing hunger and malnutrition. Their work has deepened our understanding of nutrition’s impact not only on individual health, but on human capital and economic growth – compelling leaders in countries across the world to invest in evidence-based solutions.”
** 4SD = Skills, Systems, Synergies for Sustainable development
Nabarro, March 26 2020
As has been seen in Italy and Iran, an explosive outbreak with widespread suffering can build up in a few days.
“Once this dramatic increase has taken place, drastic action – like restricting all movement – is needed to stop it. So, it makes sense to act robustly and rapidly so as to avoid getting to this stage.”
But Dr Nabarro warned: “once an outbreak has been contained and ended, we should be prepared for it to return.”
This is the guy whom governments parrot
And on April 8 2020 on a World Economic Forum webinar
now he has to change tack a little with the sudden huge shutdown’s effect – suggesting releasing lockdown with [9:29 in the webinar video]
“civil disorder building up, more and more impoverishment, food prices rising affecting access to food – not really sustainable…” Yeah, right…
“Countries may need to subdivide in to areas with high transmission and probably keep those under lockdown for longer and restrict movement out of them as well as into them, whilst at the same time trying to get the rest of the economy going.”
I wonder what Bill and Melinda have got to say to that…
All built up on BS, one big drill and modelling exercise.April 10, 2020 at 5:05 am #1183993
The London Resilience Forum which has no website but is a sub-species of the Greater London Authority which is also the London Resilience Partnership, a 170 public-private organisation which pretty well covers every aspect of life – making it easy for a total shutdown – formed under the 2004 Civil Contingencies Act.
Notice at the top of the coloured thermometer -rather like the hoax pyramid – Pandemic Flu along with flooding, [not easy to hoax] Power outage [hoaxed] Unconventional attack, and “Space weather ” hmmm
Fiona Twycross is Chair of the London Resilience Forum
This body is currently building a phoney mass mortuary on land owned by the City of London [essentially not part of the rest of London] in the suburbs – ”
It will be managed by the London Resilience Forum who are responsible for its design, build and operation.”
source, The Sun April 1
Tweets by LDN_prepared
The website is obsolete, redirecting to
London Resilience Partnership Pandemic Influenza Framework
Version 7.0 (May 2018)
Lead Authors: Marc Beveridge (Public Health England), Chloe Sellwood (NHS England (London</b>
First version 2006.
Plenty of links there
5.2 The 2011 UK Strategy recognises the need to disassociate the UK response from the global
WHO Phases and instead refers to five stages named in the table, with further information
below. Key agencies at each stage are detailed. [NHS england
It’s all in this 2011 document
e.g. Scientific modelling estimates that the UK could experience up to 750,000 additional deaths over the course of a pandemic.
I bet they couldn’t wait to put this model to a live drill.
which contains such retweeted gems as [April 10 2020]
London Emergency @LET_2017
Remembering those who lost their lives and who were injured in the 1992 Baltic Exchange bombing https://bit.ly/3bOh19S
[as pulled apart as a bombing drill here at fakeologist]
So what’s the London Emergency Trust?
London Emergency @LET_2017
London Emergencies Trust. We helped bereaved and injured caught up in #WestminsterAttack #LondonBridge #FinsburyPk #ParsonsGrn #GrenfellTower #FishmongersHall
London, Englandlondonemergenciestrust.org.ukJoined August 2017
A veritable catalogue of hoaxes.
Let’s all clap for the national health service [vomit]
— London Emergency (@LET_2017) April 9, 2020
Take-home message “Stay home” this Easter like good sheep.
Here’s the official movie for the 2016 Exercise Unified Response “EUR, geddit?” following a staged disaster inside a derelicit plant to see what these drilling clowns get up to.
These are the people who bring you all these staged drills.
April 10, 2020 at 1:58 pm #1186725
- This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by xileffilex.
Key coronahoax players in the UK – doctors from overseas prepared to “die” from coronavirus. This has also produced an unexpected sub-hoax, viz implicit racism whereby overseas doctors are put in greater danger in the front line…
I see them all as candidates for strategic relocation.
The latest data came after it was confirmed that coronavirus had claimed the life of a 10th NHS doctor. Dr Fayez Ayache had retired as a Suffolk GP but had been working part-time in North Clacton, Essex, until three weeks ago. He had also volunteered to help refugees from his native Syria. He died on Wednesday after being diagnosed with pneumonia and Covid-19.
source Guardian April 10 2020
Like Ayache, all the other nine doctors to have been named as victims of coronavirus have been from BAME backgrounds… [Black And Mixed Ethnic]
Dr Chaand Nagpaul: [head of the British Medical Association] ‘At face value, it seems hard to see how this can be random – to have the first 10 doctors of all being of BAME background.’ Photograph: BMA
The head of the British Medical Association has called on the government to urgently investigate if and why black, Asian and minority ethnic people are more vulnerable to Covid-19, after the first 10 doctors in the UK named as having died from the virus were all BAME.
Seems standard hoax procedure to me.
The story even got an airing in the US
For a country ripped apart in recent years by Brexit and the anti-immigrant movement that birthed it, the deaths of the eight doctors — from Egypt, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Sudan — attest to the extraordinary dependence of Britain’s treasured health service on workers from abroad.
It is a story tinged with racism, as white, British doctors have largely dominated the prestigious disciplines while foreign doctors have typically found work in places and practices that are apparently putting them on the dangerous front lines of the coronavirus pandemic.
There are plenty of Asian and other BAME doctors cruising around in luxury cars, doing rewarding work in the private sector as well as the NHS.
Note also the predictable anti-Brexit TINGE in that piece.
As noted by a poster at Piece of Mindful, the list of doctors who died for Coronavirus in Italy were almost all ready for a nice retirement
April 11, 2020 at 3:21 pm #1188173
- This reply was modified 4 months ago by xileffilex.
Drillers going back to the aftermath of the “SARS outbreak” in China.
Preparedness for a Global Flu Pandemic seemed to take off after the SARS outbreak c 2002-3.
In 2005, The WHO changed its designation from
Communicable Disease Surveillance & Response (CSR)
Every country should be able to detect, verify rapidly and respond appropriately to epidemic-prone and emerging disease threats when they arise to minimize their impact on the health and economy of the world’s population.
In October 2005 this designation changed to
Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response
We have changed our name to better reflect how we are working towards global health security in today’s world.
The UK developed its own response to this new global threat – UK HEALTH DEPARTMENTS
UK INFLUENZA PANDEMIC
OCTOBER 2005 [!]
This was updated in 2011 –
UK Influenza Pandemic
Preparedness Strategy 2011
The 2005 burst of modelling and preparedness activity gave rise to another shady branch of drill – UK RESILIENCE
Last updated: 10 January, 2006
Human Flu Pandemic
Description of the Risk:
Description of the Risk:
The risk of a human influenza pandemic is distinct from seasonal flu (i.e. standard flu, the type which affects the population as a matter of course, and which occurs every year during the winter). Nor is it avian influenza (bird flu). Click here for more information on the risk of avian influenza (bird flu).
Pandemic flu affecting humans may occur due to the emergence of a new flu virus which is markedly different from recently circulating strains.
It could happen if (a) avian flu combines with ‘ordinary’ flu or (b) avian flu virus mutates and you get a completely new flu strain that can be transmitted directly from one person to another.
It hasn’t happened yet but if it did, it would be a big problem. Few – if any – people will have any immunity to the new virus. This allows it to spread widely, easily and to cause more serious illness.
Experts predict another pandemic will occur but cannot say exactly when. Each pandemic is different and, until the virus starts circulating, it is impossible to predict its full effects.
Pandemic flu will only be considered imminent when a new virus has shown it can spread easily between people. In practice, this means when a new strain of the virus has been identified as the cause of chains of illness passed from one person to another or illness in more than one country, with no obvious links. This has not yet happened.
Pandemic flu last occurred in 1968-69 (Hong Kong flu). It affected large numbers of the population, causing many deaths and economic and social disruption. It is estimated to have killed 1 million worldwide, 30,000 of those in the UK.
So it seems there has been at least 14 years of preparedness in just this one country, and that has no doubt been going on in all the other member states of the World Health Organisation.
All ready to go in 2020..April 12, 2020 at 4:39 am #1189163
Our friends, aka modellers and simulators, at Imperial College are key players in this hoax, beyond their initial scaremongering tactics of modelling half a million uk deaths at the start of the event.
16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
. A minimum policy for effective suppression is therefore population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure.
To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more.
Bill Gates April 9 2020
Bill Gates: An effective COVID-19 vaccine is at least 18 months away
Hence, EXPERTS believe, predict, or perhaps model an indefinite lockdown. April 10 2020
Social distancing measures may need to remain in place ‘indefinitely’, government experts believe
Who are these “experts”? The same bunch at Imperial College, whose most recent report on the so-called Covid-19 “virus” has been taken down from the web already?
Interestingly the UK has the lowest [alongside Algeria…] analysis of case reporting trends of 42 named countries. Strange, that, with all these “experts” based in the UK.
April 14, 2020 at 4:41 am #1192018
- This reply was modified 4 months ago by xileffilex.
Minor Coronahoax player… but we need the constant drip feed of stories to keep it “real”.
Tributes to ‘fabulous’ and ‘gifted’ mother of four and NHS nurse Sara Trollope who died after contracting coronavirus
[died April 10 2020 Good Friday allegedly]
Key word – FABULOUS [aren’t the all, Coronavirus “victims”?
“There has been an outpouring of love for Sara today in response to the terribly sad news,” the trust added.
“Sara’s husband Gary spoke of her devotion to her family. She will be dearly missed by Gary, daughters Gemma ** and Freya and her twin sons Kyle and Michael. Our thoughts and prayers are with Sara’s family, friends and colleagues at this difficult time.”
A crowdfunder set up on Saturday by her friends Tracy Woods and Marie Wright to help her family has already raised £3,800. ***
GoFundMe – Check!
Age? 51. and
was a year away from retiring [at age 52….]
*** GoRetireMe approaching £11,000 and rising…
photo with someone who ‘recovered from Coronavirus” – Check!
Worked in his parliamentary constituency – check!
She fought this bravely for 7 days until it became to much for her and she passed peacefully.
Sara was a Mother, she was a devoted wife and cared for her husband Gary **** after he suffered life changing injuries whilst serving in the Army which meant he is unable to return to work.
Ah, so that’s how Boris “caught Coronavirus”
**** age 56
Is this a real death? Too many hoax markers for my liking.
April 14, 2020 at 6:15 pm #1192593
- This reply was modified 4 months ago by xileffilex.
UK Exercise Cygnus
A simulation of a pandemic in the UK carried out in October 2016
The Wiki page was only created on March 29 2020, following an article in the Daily Telegraph the previous day
Ministers from across government were seated, ashen faced, in the Cabinet Office Briefing Room (COBR). On a large flat screen, epidemiologists from Imperial College London were showing a slide which detailed the scale of the epidemic that was enveloping Britain.
The first cases of the virus had been confirmed in south east Asia two months previously. Britain reported its first cases, imported from returning travellers, a month later. Now there was widespread and sustained domestic transmission and the World Health Organization (WHO) had declared a global pandemic.
But it was not the pandemic itself that was causing those gathered in Whitehall to grimace but the nation’s woeful preparation. The peak of the epidemic had not yet arrived but local resilience forums, hospitals and mortuaries across the country were already being overwhelmed.
There was not enough personal protective equipment (PPE) for the nation’s doctors and nurses. The NHS was about to “fall over” due to a shortage of ventilators and critical care beds. Morgues were set to overflow, and it had become terrifyingly evident that the government’s emergency messaging was not getting traction with the public.
This was a drill. Code-named Exercise Cygnus, it took place in October 2016 and involved all major government departments, the NHS and local authorities across Britain. The modelling for the outbreak was prepared by the same team that is tracking the all-too-real Covid-19 pandemic now. [i.e. Imperial College]
The only significant difference between the test drill and the pandemic we now face is that Cygnus was assumed to be the H2N2 influenza virus, while Covid-19 is a coronavirus. Both spread rapidly and kill by causing acute respiratory illness.
There is one other difference. While the real Covid-19 epidemic is being played out in public, the report detailing the findings of Exercise Cygnus have never seen the light of day. A senior former government source with direct involvement in the exercise said they were deemed “too terrifying” to be revealed. Others involved cited “national security” concerns.
“There has been a reluctance to put Cygnus out in the public domain because frankly it would terrify people,” said the former senior government source yesterday.
The spin on this article is that the current procedure is woefully inadequate having been drilled 3.5 years previously.
The fakeologist take on it is that this was a dry run for the drill of 2020.
Very few tweets – right upto the end of 2019!
Adrian Osborne #StayHomeSaveLives Rainbow flag @NHSAdrianO
25 Jan 2017
Catherine notes that local arrangements are being updated to reflect learning from Exercise Cygnus
Merseyside LRF @merseyprepared
27 Oct 2016
Read our latest briefing following Merseyside’s participation in Exercise Cygnus http://merseysideprepared.org.uk/testing-our-response
Alistair Quaile @aliquaile
19 Apr 2016
Future challenges for
include further industrial action, Exercise Cygnus (pandemic flu), devolution & DH 2020 #ambitionexpo
doug harwood @DougsVWWerks
12 Oct 2014
How much do you trust ‘your’ government
On the 14th of October “exercise Cygnus” will be undertaken at a… http://fb.me/7bFtyt6iP
Neil Hamlyn @neilhamlyn
3 Sep 2014
Exercise #Cygnus campaign started for #LRF DCIOS. First Gold meeting today: discussed how we would respond to a pandemic flu outbreak.
The Prepper Times @ThePrepperTimes
·21 Aug 2014
UK: Updated Pandemic Response Plan & Exercise Cygnus http://bit.ly/1s6gumd
Michael Coston @Fla_Medic
·17 Aug 2014
AFD Blog `#UK: Updated #Pandemic Response Plan & Exercise #Cygnus’ http://bit.ly/1BpQDMD
·5 Jun 2014
Busy day – officer at WG for Exercise Cygnus Workshop and busy preparing for Debriefer Updates session tomorrow! But the sun is shining!/em>
It seems that Exercise Cygnus was >set to go live in late 2014, but for some reason, it didn’t happen for two years! OR it did, twice…
This plan and the learning from the national multiagency pandemic influenza Exercise Cygnus in late [** October] 2014, will inform the further development of comprehensive and integrated plans in delivering an effective and sustainable response across the organisation.
The Merseyside Prepared [check their archive to see all the disasters they’ve been drilling!] drill of 2016 was reported thus:
Home Testing our Response Exercise Cygnus – 18 to 20 October 2016
EXERCISE CYGNUS – TUESDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2016
The Civil Contingencies Act (2004) requires us to produce a Community Risk Register (CRR) as part of our wider work in preparing for, responding to and recovering from emergencies. The register covers all types of risks and includes the joint plans and control measures that we have in place to protect the community of Merseyside.
Exercise Cygnus took place from 18 to 20 October 2016. This was a national exercise that involved the participation of representatives from a variety of multi-agency partners from the Merseyside Resilience Forum (MRF), ie. Health, Local Authorities, Fire, Police, Ambulance, Army and two local Prisons.
The exercise focused on the influenza type disease (pandemic) risk contained within the Community Risk Register. The overall aim of the national exercise was to assess preparedness and response to an influenza pandemic in the UK ….
The exercise was a success, the objectives were achieved, however, a number of actions were identified that will improve the overall response to an influenza pandemic occurring in the UK.
Note the Michael Coston blog above…
Sunday, August 17, 2014
UK: Updated Pandemic Response Plan & Exercise Cygnus
In December of 2012 the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events). Number one on their hit parade?
Global Trends 2030’s potential Black Swans
“No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur,” the report says. “Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months.”
Similarly, last year  the UK’s National Risk Registry of Civil Emergencies listed Influenza at their nation’s #1 threat. [above nuclear war, lol!
the emergence of MERS-CoV, H5N1, Nipah, Hendra, Lyme Disease, H7N9, H10N8, NDM-1, CRE, etc. are not temporary aberrations. They are the new norm, and we should get used to seeing more like these appear in the coming years.
That said, having now blogged on emerging infectious diseases for more than 8 years, I wouldn’t be surprised if we went another 10 years without seeing a pandemic. Nor would I be terribly surprised if we found ourselves deep in the heart of one six months from now. If writing 8000+ blogs has taught me anything, it is the folly of trying to predict what will happen next.
The Powys link in the Wiki article notes that April 2016 was also an aborted date for the Cygnus drill.
The Times article of December 27 2016 :
Professor Dame Sally Davies [Chief Medical Officer at the time] .. warned that the world was intensely vulnerable and society would struggle to deal with the huge number of people killed by a serious pandemic.
i.e. modelled deaths.
Link – NHS England board paper, 30 March 2017
Our preparations for pandemic influenza were exercised in October 2016 with NHS England participating in Exercise Cygnus. The exercise was set seven weeks into a severe pandemic outbreak and challenged the NHS to review its response to an overwhelmed service with reduced staff availability. Plans are currently being revised to incorporate the learning from this exercise and ensure our continued preparedness for future pandemic influenza outbreaks. We are also continuing the challenging work around the management of surge and escalation decision making processes.April 15, 2020 at 6:15 pm #1194154
More from the European Coronavirus Envoy, Dr David Nabarro [see above]
April 15 2020 London Evening Standard
he’s advocating a strategy of “rapid detection, rapid action”
Otherwise the prospect of continuing lockdowns from time to time looms and they are super-damaging to the economy.”
He also backed the widespread use of face masks in the community, **particularly for supermarket workers, hairdressers and other shop staff who come into close contact with customers, as well as elderly people with underlying health conditions.
As suspected, this pandemic hoax can run and run whenever the drill is turned on by the controllers.
Is he advising all European countries?
** strangely, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer for the UK, Jonathan Van Tam, said at a 10 Downing Street Press Conference, reported April 3
“I was on the phone this morning to a colleague in Hong Kong whose done the evidence review for the World Health Organisation on face masks.
“We are of the same mind that there is no evidence that the general wearing of face masks by the public who are well affects the spread of the disease in our society.
“Yes it is true that we do see very large amounts of mask-wearing in south-east Asia, but we have always seen that for many decades.
“In terms of the hard evidence, we do not recommend face masks for general wearing for the public.“
**From the WHO’s own updated “interim guidance”, April 6 2020
Studies of influenza, influenza-like illness, and human coronaviruses provide evidence that the use of a medical mask can prevent the spread of infectious droplets from an infected person to someone else and potential contamination
of the environment by these droplets.
There is limited evidence that wearing a medical mask by healthy individuals in the households or among contacts of a sick patient, or among attendees of mass gatherings may be beneficial as a preventive measure.
However, there is currently no evidence that wearing a mask (whether medical or other types) by healthy persons in the wider community setting, including universal community masking, can prevent them from
infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19.
So, if you’re healthy, wearing a mask is a total waste of time in stopping you getting ill [from anything] And yet….
April 21, 2020 at 4:50 pm #1202567
- This reply was modified 4 months ago by xileffilex.
Key Corona players ctd – Government data agencies.
We are told, with graphs and bar charts that there has been an unusual mid-Spring surge in European death rates, reminiscent of the climate change ‘hockey stick’
It is difficult to counter these graphs as the state (s) is in total control of the data. All we can offer to counter the ‘reality’ of a pandemic are the numerous hoax markers – dancing nurses, apparently empty hospitals, idle ambulances, a rash of celeb contractions and medical deaths.
We can’t trust the state, that is well established.
If there is a sudden spike in deaths then you must have a lower death rate in coming years, since many of these assumed deaths will have been deaths which would have occurred anyway or in the near future. There doesn’t seem to be an indication that the statisticians have been holding back normal deaths from winter.** Another idea is that these figures are simulated or modelled – but how can we challenge that ‘black box’?
Take the BBC – for UK
which posits a 20 year high
The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April – about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year.
A third were linked to coronavirus, but deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health.
A peak of 800 died in UK hospital on April 8, allegedly
On Tuesday 823 new deaths were announced, but most of these happened in the previous days and weeks. Some even date back to March.
- so some evidence of holding back deaths to create an artificial peak.
But the reported deaths for all winter seem not to show that although throughout winter there is an apparent deficit of deaths….
But deaths from other causes were also significantly higher in the UK
Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at [the Office of National Statistics], said they were trying to understand and find out why this was.
He said it could be that people with other illnesses were avoiding going to hospital for treatment – visits to A&E have halved since the pandemic started – or an under-reporting of coronavirus.***
But he added it could “take years to work out”.
*** and routine operations cancelled, people in care homes denied visits etc etc
Throughout Europe, flu is much reduced compared with 2018-9
A similar picture obtains in France
and through much of Europe, with exceptions
For reference, the data for the European flu season winter 2016-7 is archived here
https://web.archive.org/web/20190927113621/https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/summary-influenza-2016-2017-season-europeApril 22, 2020 at 8:31 am #1203829
Fake “victims” – the BBC Radio upto its usual tricks. They always use “reliable” Radio 4 where the actors employed to pour out their grief don’t need to show their faces. Indeed, in the clip as reported [the standard model] subsequently in the Mail, the “victim” and his widow are not named. They’re just sims.
All made up. It’s just a story put out as factual news.
The emotional interview, recorded by correspondent Dan Johnson, touched many listeners at home, with several taking to Twitter to express their sympathy.
Wessel Van Rensburg commented: ‘These interviews on Today with the partners of people that have died from Covid is harrowing. It’s a brutal disease, you can’t say goodbye, die alone.’
yeah, suuuuuure. Job done on the idiots. Stay home. Wear a mask. Crash the economy, it’s worth it….
April 22, 2020 at 11:12 am #1204030
- This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by xileffilex.
So what are the REAL death figures for one developed country, the UK [see above]?
The FT has very kindly NOT put its latest scare story behind a paywall [go figure]
April 22 2020
So what’s the sub-plot here? It seems the FT has extrapolated the real deaths around EASTER to double what is suggested by ONS data as reported by the BBC. Yet the FT maintains that the peak was April 8 – are they suggesting it’s winding down based on more numerical trickery?
The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.
The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.
The FT extrapolation, based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday, includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends.
The analysis also supports emerging evidence that the peak of deaths in the UK occurred on April 8 with the mortality rate gradually trending lower since, despite the 823 hospital deaths announced on Tuesday, which were sharply up on the 449 in the previous 24 hours.
Does the FT want the wrecked economy to start returning towards a new normal more quickly than others are suggesting?
It also looks like the [graphically shown] burgeoning deaths at home and in care homes is an EXTRAPOLATION of the well known percentages of where deaths occur.
The ONS data also showed that the vast majority of all excess deaths were people aged over 75 years old. This age bracket accounted for 70 per cent of the total, the same proportion as those with Covid-19 on their death certificates.
Prof Henegan said this was unusual for a pandemic and reflected the same patterns of mortality seen in seasonal flu epidemics. “In all the previous pandemics, the young are disproportionately affected,” he said.
There is something very very weird going on. It’s not enough just to say oh, they’re making up these figures because we can’t prove it, even though we might suspect it.
This is the BS scam which allows the FT to produce the hockey stick graph
But because of the lag in collating the data, the ONS published figures for the period to April 10 are significantly out of date as they are based on registrations received by the statistical office, which on average arrive four days after the actual date of death.
The FT’s analysis has extrapolated these figures using the latest trends in the daily hospital deaths assuming the relationship between these and total excess deaths remained stable, as it has so far over the course of the pandemic.
Using this calculation, a conservative estimate of UK excess deaths by April 21 was 41,102.
There will always be a lag.
The 41K hockey stick
Bonus item in the article – a softball interview, 22 mins, with Gill Bates.April 23, 2020 at 4:45 pm #1205400
UK Government clowns who share a platform at the absurd daily briefings –
1. the stand-in Prime Minister who’s deputising for the real one who faked Coronavirus and has gone missing
2. the Chief Medical Officer [for England]
[a third clown in army camo fatigues also popped up with them, at a 2m distance of course]
The UK has reached the peak of the coronavirus epidemic, cabinet ministers have confirmed, despite warnings that the disease may still be rampant in care homes.
the chief medical officer for England, Chris Whitty… told the daily news briefing he was hopeful for a vaccine within a year but there is a long way to go between having a vaccine and widespread immunity. It would therefore be “wholly unrealistic” to think that restrictions would be relaxed any time soon and some “very socially disruptive” measures would almost certainly have to remain in force for the rest of the year…
[and] that the peak was an “artificial peak” as it was the result of the lockdown. The first secretary of state, Dominic Raab **, also reiterated that the biggest risk was a second spike. This all reinforces that an “exit strategy” from physical distancing measures is proving more and more difficult to devise.
Job done. Whitty obviously taking orders from the WHO/Gates Foundation/Rockefeller Foundation
** the fake prime minister
April 26, 2020 at 4:37 pm #1209397gaiaParticipant
- This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by xileffilex.
Not so much a current Corona crisis actor, but one from the past, or even more, written during the last war. Very disturbing thoughts are shared here by C.S. Lewis, the author of the Chronicles of Narnia among other books.
C.S. Lewis – The Screwtape Letters (1942)
“I am delighted to hear that your patient’s age and profession make it possible, but by no
means certain, that he will be called up for military service.
We want him to be in the maximum uncertainty, so that his mind will be filled with contradictory pictures of the future, every one of which arouses hope or fear.
There is nothing like suspense and anxiety for barricading a human’s mind against the Enemy. He wants men to be concerned with what they do; our business is to keep them thinking about what will happen to them.
Your patient will, of course, have picked up the notion that he must submit with patience to the Enemy’s will. What the Enemy means by this is primarily that he should accept with patience the tribulation which has actually been dealt out to him—the present anxiety and suspense.
It is about this that he is to say “Thy will be done”, and for the daily task of bearing
this that the daily bread will be provided. It is your business to see that the patient never
thinks of the present fear as his appointed cross but only of the things he is afraid of.
Let him regard them as his crosses: let him forget that, since they are incompatible, they
cannot all happen to him, and let him try to practise fortitude and patience to them all in
advance. For real resignation, at the same moment, to a dozen different and hypothetical
fates, is almost impossible, and the Enemy does not greatly assist those who are trying to
attain it: resignation to present and actual suffering, even where that suffering consists of fear,
is far easier and is usually helped by this direct action.
An important spiritual law is here involved. I have explained that you can weaken his prayers
by diverting his attention from the Enemy Himself to his own states of mind about the
Enemy. On the other hand fear becomes easier to master when the patient’s mind is diverted
from the thing feared to the fear itself, considered as a present and undesirable state of his
own mind; and when he regards the fear as his appointed cross he will inevitably think of it as
a state of mind. One can therefore formulate the general rule; in all activities of mind which
favour our cause, encourage the patient to be un-selfconscious and to concentrate on the
object, but in all activities favourable to the Enemy bend his mind back on itself. Let an insult
or a woman’s body so fix his attention outward that he does not reflect “I am now entering
into the state called Anger—or the state called Lust”. Contrariwise let the reflection “My
feelings are now growing more devout, or more charitable” so fix his attention inward that he
no longer looks beyond himself to see our Enemy or his own neighbours.”
Page 15 of the below PDF
"A truth seeker is someone who dares to wade through thick series of toxic smoke screens and tries not to inhale" - Gaia (2017)
"What do you call 'genius'?" "Well, seeing things others don't see. Or rather the invisible links between things." - Vladimir Nabokov (1938)April 27, 2020 at 6:37 am #1210049
Interim report on the ONS “total deaths” in the UK
For some reason, after reporting the huge PROVISIONAL spike in total deaths on 10 April, no further graphs or data have been produced. Hmmmm
Next release date April 28. [after the last non-release date]
Yet the government’s health department are pressing ahead doling out Covid cases / deaths [as per current recording procedures…]
and pushed by their twitter stream with its banner headline numbers post as a pinned tweet
Tweets by DHSCgovuk
Department of Health and Social Care @DHSCgovuk
18h [4:47 PM 26 April 2020 Sunday]
As of 9am 26 April, 669,850 tests have concluded, with 29,058 tests on 25 April.
543,413 people have been tested of which 152,840 tested positive.
As of 5pm on 25 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive fe..or coronavirus, 20,732 have sadly died.
Just a lot of number jumbo.
Anbother UK government site which fails to reference total recorded deaths:
showing lab confirmed cases daily and cumulative and hospital “Covid 19 ” deaths daily and cumulative.
Approx 110,000 and 20,732 respectively to date at April 26.
“Droppin’ like flies”April 28, 2020 at 6:45 am #1211639
Total deaths for week 16 [April 17] released for England and Wales, showing weeks 14 and 15 for comparison. [ONS website, link above]
16,387 18,516 22,351 Total deaths
10,305 10,520 10,497 average for past 5 years
These ONS figures DO show people dropping like flies. especially the very old.
1,951 1,757 1,776 [deaths where respiratory disease was main cause]
3,475 6,213 8,758 [deaths where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate and which would also be included in the above smaller category, SAME WEEKS,endind 3, 10 and 17 April
So, are the figures being manipulated? Is lockdown/shutdown causing people to die? Are more people dying in care homes?
As expected, most deaths are in the 90 plus age range, with women more affected, [since they live longer on average!]
945 60 plus
1,272 65 plus
2,108 70 plus
2,817 75 plus
3,840 80 plus
4,444 85 plus
5,157 90 plus
once again, this shows that the young are not dying in larger numbers in this alleged pandemic, as might be expected.
April 29, 2020 at 10:31 am #1213714
- This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by xileffilex.
Finally someone who talks sense
Perspectives on the Pandemic | Professor Knut Wittkowski | Episode 2
1,244,579 views•Apr 3, 2020
if I might paraphrase –
It’s just normal flu
There no more pandemic than each flu season
It’s pointless keeping children away from School
It’s pointless flatterning “the curve”
It’s pointless tracing all your contacts.
It’s pointless producing a vaccine.
Keeping people locked up away from fresh air is a killer
And by inference, shutting down the whole global economy is pointless too [unless you are one of the Gates Foundation cabal]
Against the Corona Panic, Pt. V: A Hero of the Hour, Dr. Knut Wittkowski
And in the UK, now the scientists are trying to blame a single government adviser for the lockdown, lol! [allegedly, anonymous sources etc etc]
Who is on this SAGE committee of Scientific advisors to the UK government which was so hectored by one special adviser, allegedly [no minutes available…]?
All this lot, including the WORLD famous Neil “half a million” Ferguson.
one interesting voice who also subscribes to herd immunity, like Wittkoswki, aka letting whatever it is run its course –
Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Medley is also chair of the Sage subgroup on pandemic modelling, and director of the centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. He brings wide expertise not just in modelling but in designing interventions and how political and social factors interact with the spread of epidemics. Medley was one of the first scientists to elaborate on the herd immunity strategy. He told Newsnight he’d like to “put all the more vulnerable people into the north of Scotland … everybody else into Kent and have a nice, big epidemic in Kent, so that everyone becomes immune”.
That would be a normal winter flu epidemic.
So, what seems to be happening is that keeping people locked up will maintain the higher death rate of old people to get us into the next winter flu season.
From Bloomberg, April 29 2020
Three weeks until this is unveiled as a step towards a NOO NOORMAL:
The [UK] government has said it sees a “test, track and trace” system as the way to ensure that Covid-19 infections don’t take off again as the lockdown is eased. That requires the recruitment of 18,000 “contact tracers” to identify people who might have been exposed to the virus, as well as the release of a mobile phone app that will do part of that job automatically.
Aaaaand, no surprise here:
Bloomberg April 28 2020
Virus Likely to Keep Coming Back Each Year, Say Top Chinese Scientists
just like the flu, lol! And thanks to that brilliant invention of the hoaxers, the AYMPTOMATIC CARRIER who lurks among us, or IS all of us.
makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday.
Just what the elite wants.
Seems like it will never be eliminated, according to these Chinese “experts”April 29, 2020 at 7:57 pm #1214367
James Corbett discusses the Coronavirus stats with Jason Bermas
JC can’t get his head round them, unsurprisingly, especially those from New York for which official historical figures are strangely elusive. But he can see where all this is leading, viz the insidious control of the flock.
At around 14-15 mins, he notes the precise historical ONS source of TOTAL deaths in England and Wales going back 30 years, not just the strange April 2020 peak but also even larger peaks in 1999 and 2000…..
- This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by xileffilex.
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